Risk Factors: Parents tend to consider negative impacts much more than the likelihood of those impacts. It used to be that kids could play outside on their own for hours on end. “Come home when the streetlights come on,” moms would say. No longer! The typical neighborhood in the US is no more dangerous now, and likely less dangerous than it was then. But, of course, we hear of every discretion in the world now through the multitude of media outlets and the lightning-fast way that news travels. Then we imagine the transgression and make it personal, thinking how horrible it would be if that incident or tragedy happened to our loved ones!
For instance, many parents now fear that any day their kid will be abducted on her three-block walk home. So mom or dad meet him at school or, has it happens at my grandchildren’s school, the school won’t let a ‘walker’ off the property until in the hands of a known adult. My purpose here is not to criticize steps taken to protect our children, but to ease some of the mind-numbing fear because another factor exists that is rarely considered, that is the exceedingly remote likelihood of a kidnapping happening to you or anyone you know – the ‘IF’ factor.
According to the Polly Klaas Foundation, 99.8% of the children who go missing do come home! And only about 100 children (a fraction of 1%) are kidnapped each year in the entire United States in the stereotypical stranger abductions you hear about in the news.
Let me take the example of flying in a commercial aircraft. This proposal causes much fear in some people because, let’s face it, a crash is dramatic and might kill you. But if you care to look, here is a link showing the flights currently in the air. It reveals just how busy the airways are yet you rarely hear of an incident even though every accident, even minor, is reported. So while Americans have a 1 in 114 chance of dying in a car crash, according to the National Safety Council, the odds of dying in an air incident are 1 in 9,821. That’s 86 times safer than driving and three times safer than eating because of the choking hazard, yet we take the risk of riding in a car and eating.
Message 1: Realize that you can cheat yourself or your children of significant life opportunities if you don’t consider how unlikely some consequences are.
When we keep our kids too safe, there are still risks. You may end up with a child who is afraid of things they’ve never tried in life or who is awkward in certain social situations. They may miss out on experiences to grow or to build confidence. These possible consequences are not as severe as being abducted or dying in a plane crash, but the likelihood of those things happening are much higher.
Message 2: Realize that you can cheat yourself or your children of significant life opportunities if you don’t consider how likely some consequences are.
The magnitude of risk (risk factor) considers two elements, the likelihood (probability) of something happening and the consequence (impact) if it does. While ‘consequences’ can remain somewhat stable, ‘likelihood’ can change by location and circumstance. Confusing to think about, but, actually, all I’m trying to suggest is that two entirely different kinds of risks can have a similar ‘risk factor.’ For instance, overprotecting your kids is just as risky, in a sense, as not. Because a loss of freedom, adventure, or decision making can be harmful in less noticeable ways. Something to consider! Something to balance.
Summary
I know that not one parent is likely to stop escorting their children in safe neighborhoods (a completely valid thing to do in unsafe neighborhoods because of likelihood), and those afraid of flying will remain so. I get that! But I hope that, maybe, if we consider more than just the visions of what we hear and see on the news, and consider their 'likelihoods' also, then the paranoia can be reduced, thereby helping our sanity, our contentment, and our joy of living.
For instance, many parents now fear that any day their kid will be abducted on her three-block walk home. So mom or dad meet him at school or, has it happens at my grandchildren’s school, the school won’t let a ‘walker’ off the property until in the hands of a known adult. My purpose here is not to criticize steps taken to protect our children, but to ease some of the mind-numbing fear because another factor exists that is rarely considered, that is the exceedingly remote likelihood of a kidnapping happening to you or anyone you know – the ‘IF’ factor.
According to the Polly Klaas Foundation, 99.8% of the children who go missing do come home! And only about 100 children (a fraction of 1%) are kidnapped each year in the entire United States in the stereotypical stranger abductions you hear about in the news.
Let me take the example of flying in a commercial aircraft. This proposal causes much fear in some people because, let’s face it, a crash is dramatic and might kill you. But if you care to look, here is a link showing the flights currently in the air. It reveals just how busy the airways are yet you rarely hear of an incident even though every accident, even minor, is reported. So while Americans have a 1 in 114 chance of dying in a car crash, according to the National Safety Council, the odds of dying in an air incident are 1 in 9,821. That’s 86 times safer than driving and three times safer than eating because of the choking hazard, yet we take the risk of riding in a car and eating.
Message 1: Realize that you can cheat yourself or your children of significant life opportunities if you don’t consider how unlikely some consequences are.
When we keep our kids too safe, there are still risks. You may end up with a child who is afraid of things they’ve never tried in life or who is awkward in certain social situations. They may miss out on experiences to grow or to build confidence. These possible consequences are not as severe as being abducted or dying in a plane crash, but the likelihood of those things happening are much higher.
Message 2: Realize that you can cheat yourself or your children of significant life opportunities if you don’t consider how likely some consequences are.
The magnitude of risk (risk factor) considers two elements, the likelihood (probability) of something happening and the consequence (impact) if it does. While ‘consequences’ can remain somewhat stable, ‘likelihood’ can change by location and circumstance. Confusing to think about, but, actually, all I’m trying to suggest is that two entirely different kinds of risks can have a similar ‘risk factor.’ For instance, overprotecting your kids is just as risky, in a sense, as not. Because a loss of freedom, adventure, or decision making can be harmful in less noticeable ways. Something to consider! Something to balance.
Summary
I know that not one parent is likely to stop escorting their children in safe neighborhoods (a completely valid thing to do in unsafe neighborhoods because of likelihood), and those afraid of flying will remain so. I get that! But I hope that, maybe, if we consider more than just the visions of what we hear and see on the news, and consider their 'likelihoods' also, then the paranoia can be reduced, thereby helping our sanity, our contentment, and our joy of living.
